Confirmed: Airstrikes launched against insurgent forces in Bama. Damage to structures within the city reported.
Confirmed: In a speech (obtained from informed sources) on 2/9/14 given to thousands of fighters drawn from Harakatul-Muhajiriina wal-Mujahidiin and allied Ansorul-Muslimiina Fii Bilaadis-Sudan, Khalid Al-Barnawi decries the “misguided adventurism” of Abubakar Shekau and calls him “a clear enemy of the Jihad”.
This is in response to the proclamation by Shekau of Gwoza as part of an ‘Islamic Caliphate(Khilafah)’. Khalid Al-Barnawi in this address denounced the recent proclamation by Shekau and on behalf of Abu Usamah Al-Ansori (who is said to be in Gwoza) disassociated Harakatul-Muhajiriin and Ansorul-Muslimiin from any affiliation and link to Ad-Daulatul-Islamiyyah (The Islamic State) of Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi.
The Amir of Harakatul-Muhajiriin also praised Allah for the great victory his forces were granted in Bama and announced that as soon as their hold in Bama and Gwoza was consolidated a new operation provisionally named Operation Zalzalah (Earthquake)’ will be launched to ‘liberate’ Maiduguri from the ‘occupying’ army of ‘Shaiton(Satan)’ that is ‘holding’ it.
Analysis: From this speech and recent happenings (sources confirm that a joint unit from Jamaa’atu Ahlis-Sunnah of Sheikh Bukar, Haraktul-Muhajiriin and Ansorul-Muslimiin engaged in offensive combat operations in late August to dislodge forces from Jamaa’atu Ahlis-Sunnah of Shekau from a village near Geidam, Yobe State, which Shekau’s fighters had moved into after the local Army and Police units were ordered out), it is clear that a significant change is going on within the insurgents ranks. Shekau may soon find himself fighting a three-front war against a unified opposing Yusufiyya grouping, CJTF militias and Nigerian Military units. If the emerging Yusufiyya grouping of Bukar Al-Barnawi, Khalid Al-Barnawi an Abu Usamah Al-Ansori takes on Shekau, that will open a fourth front on their side. Already they are facing off with Cameroon, Nigerian Armed Forces and CJTF militias, plus occasional skirmishes with Chadian troops. Taking on Shekau may be more load than they can handle, presenting a golden opportunity for the Nigerian Government to be proactive for once.
Confirmed: Upto two thousand fighters cross from Cameroon to Nigeria via Madagali and Gwoza. Some are said to be reinforcements for insurgent forces holding Bama, while others are coming to join preparations for the next phase of Al-Bidayah Campaign I.e the already announced assault to seize control of Michika and Bazza.
Residents of Michika LGA of Adamawa State were warned via letters delivered, after the fall of Madagali in August, to the District Head of Michika and the Local Government Chairman that Yusufiyya forces are coming to take over the area and all who wish to remain must pledge allegiance to their authority. This precipitated a mass exodus of the people into the mountains, across the border to Cameroon or to Yola the state capital, while the wealthier ones have all fled outside the conflict zone entirely to Kaduna State.
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